06-17-2010, 01:44 PM
Pakistan is a major producer of several key agricultural commodities, the sector continues to suffer from major inefficiencies. Although the government has taken some important steps towards investing in and modernising key sectors such as dairy, more investment is needed in the country's overburdened infrastructure. For example, expansions in rice production, which could potentially become a major export crop and foreign currency earner, is hindered by poor transport and power infrastructure, which are persistent concerns in Pakistan. Unreliable irrigation and water supply also leaves crops at the mercy of the weather. While growers can put pressure on the government to invest in infrastructure, the current volatile political climate and sagging economy means that such investments will not be a high priority.
Wheat production for 2010 will once again fall short of the government production target of 25.0mn tonnes, with BMI forecasting production of 23,214mn tonnes. With production having increased significantly in the 2008/09 year by 14.7% from the year before, the government hoped that a further increase would be feasible. However, water scarcity continues to be an issue, as the 2009 monsoon brought a well-below average level of rain, exacerbating the problem, as did a 0.22% drop in the cultivation area as compared to 2009.
Despite the persistent high prices, demand for wheat rose 1.8% in 2009 to 22.80mn tonnes, with demand expected to increase again by 2.9% in 2010. To 2014 we forecast growth of wheat consumption of almost 6% from the 2009 level to 25.45mn tonnes. As the staple food and the cheapest source of carbohydrates, demand for wheat is very inelastic and may even increase in times of high prices With our long-term forecasts showing that wheat consumption will soon outpace production, Pakistan will soon find itself in the undesirable position of being reliant on imports to meet domestic demand, and therefore vulnerable to price fluctuations on the world markets.
For 2010 we expect that limited irrigation water and a large fall in planted area after disappointing prices for the 2009 crop will see rice production fall sharply.
Pakistan is facing a large deficit in sugar production in 2010, and much of the blame for this can be put down to poor business practices in the sugar milling sector.
In March 2010 Pakistani sugar mills appealed to the government for a 35% tax on imported sugar, with worries over cheap sugar imports as a result of the significant drop in international prices.
Following their January peak, international sugar prices started to plunge, as the market began to price in a recovery in global sugar production over 2010; this will have an impact on domestic prices and could continue to discourage cane production. After having fallen in 2009, sugar production in Pakistan is not expected to record a strong recovery in 2010. Output will continue to fall short of domestic demand, which will continue to rise steadily along with the growing population.
We forecast real GDP growth to come in at a disappointing 2.4% in 2010 and 2.2% in 2011.
Wheat production for 2010 will once again fall short of the government production target of 25.0mn tonnes, with BMI forecasting production of 23,214mn tonnes. With production having increased significantly in the 2008/09 year by 14.7% from the year before, the government hoped that a further increase would be feasible. However, water scarcity continues to be an issue, as the 2009 monsoon brought a well-below average level of rain, exacerbating the problem, as did a 0.22% drop in the cultivation area as compared to 2009.
Despite the persistent high prices, demand for wheat rose 1.8% in 2009 to 22.80mn tonnes, with demand expected to increase again by 2.9% in 2010. To 2014 we forecast growth of wheat consumption of almost 6% from the 2009 level to 25.45mn tonnes. As the staple food and the cheapest source of carbohydrates, demand for wheat is very inelastic and may even increase in times of high prices With our long-term forecasts showing that wheat consumption will soon outpace production, Pakistan will soon find itself in the undesirable position of being reliant on imports to meet domestic demand, and therefore vulnerable to price fluctuations on the world markets.
For 2010 we expect that limited irrigation water and a large fall in planted area after disappointing prices for the 2009 crop will see rice production fall sharply.
Pakistan is facing a large deficit in sugar production in 2010, and much of the blame for this can be put down to poor business practices in the sugar milling sector.
In March 2010 Pakistani sugar mills appealed to the government for a 35% tax on imported sugar, with worries over cheap sugar imports as a result of the significant drop in international prices.
Following their January peak, international sugar prices started to plunge, as the market began to price in a recovery in global sugar production over 2010; this will have an impact on domestic prices and could continue to discourage cane production. After having fallen in 2009, sugar production in Pakistan is not expected to record a strong recovery in 2010. Output will continue to fall short of domestic demand, which will continue to rise steadily along with the growing population.
We forecast real GDP growth to come in at a disappointing 2.4% in 2010 and 2.2% in 2011.
